The Future of #MadeInItaly under the New Trump 2.0 Administration: Predictions and Contradictions

Dear readers,

With the 2024 elections now behind us and Donald Trump back in the White House, the fashion world finds itself reflecting on how this new administration will impact our beloved #MadeinItaly. Trump, with his protectionist and conservative approach, has always had a complex relationship with international trade. However, there’s an irony we can’t ignore: despite his often rigid policies, both he and his elegant wife Melania are known for their love of luxury Italian brands.

Imagine the scene: on one hand, Trump imposing tariffs and restrictions to protect the American economy; on the other, he and Melania proudly wearing Gucci, Prada, and Ferragamo accessories. It’s a fascinating and somewhat ironic contradiction, don’t you think?

In this article, we will explore the potential challenges and opportunities that Made in Italy could face under Trump’s new term. We invite you to join us in this prediction, analysing how the luxury, food, and technology sectors might navigate the waves of growing protectionism. And who knows, perhaps we’ll discover that, despite everything, the allure and quality of Made in Italy will continue to shine even in the most uncertain times.

Ready to take a dive into the future of Italian fashion? Keep reading and let’s find out together!

During Donald Trump’s Presidency (2017-2021), the “Make America Great Again” slogan brought with it a protectionist approach aimed at supporting the US economy through tariffs and punitive measures on imports from countries considered competitors. The goal was to encourage domestic production, but the policies implemented had a complex effect on global trade, impacting sectors not directly involved in trade disputes, such as luxury and fashion.

For example, in 2019, the Italian wine and food sector suffered due to tariffs imposed on certain European products in response to the trade disputes between the United States and the European Union over subsidies for Airbus. These tariffs negatively affected Made in Italy, particularly products like wine, olive oil, and cheese, which are crucial for Italian exports to the USA.

2024 Campaign: The Return of Protectionism?

Trump's 2024 campaign appears to align with his message of defending American workers and reviving the domestic economy. It is likely that, during this second term, he will maintain or even intensify protectionist measures. Some key points of his electoral platform, such as reducing Chinese imports and strengthening American production, suggest that even allied countries like Italy could face restrictions, although likely targeted.

An interesting element to monitor will be Trump’s stance towards European products. On the one hand, he has previously favoured raising tariffs, but on the other, Made in Italy represents an exception in the US market, with high and consistent demand, particularly in high-quality and luxury sectors. Trump, known for his interest in aesthetics and luxury, may keep this market intact for Made in Italy, in order to avoid alienating consumers and businesses who have a strong appreciation for Italian products.

Impact for Made in Italy: Opportunities and Challenges

Here are the key factors that could shape the future of Made in Italy under Trump’s second term:

• Luxury and Fashion: It is unlikely that significant tariffs will be imposed on luxury and fashion products, sectors in which Italy is a global leader. The exclusivity of Italian brands such as Gucci, Prada, and Ferrari makes them less susceptible to fluctuations in protectionist policies. In fact, they could benefit from increased demand in the US, as Trump supports a growing middle class that may be attracted to luxury goods.

• Agri-food: The agri-food sector could face greater challenges, particularly regarding tariffs on products such as wine, olive oil, and cheese, which have already been penalised in the past. It is possible that, in order to reduce imports of non-essential goods, new tariffs will be imposed. However, much will depend on diplomatic relations between Washington and Brussels.

• Technology and Innovation: If Italy manages to position itself with technologically advanced and innovative products, it could find opportunities within a more closed American economy. The increasing US focus on energy independence and sustainability could open doors for Italian companies in the green tech sector, renewable energy production, or sustainable mobility, aligning with American transition energy plans.

• Automotive: The luxury automotive industry, with brands like Ferrari and Lamborghini, could also be impacted by any new tariffs. However, given their high-end, niche target market, it is unlikely that these vehicles will be heavily penalised. Trump has shown some favour towards luxury goods, which may mitigate potential restrictive measures on this sector.

Outlook and Strategies for Made in Italy

To tackle potential challenges, Italian companies might adopt the following strategies:

• Market Diversification: Focusing on other markets such as Asia and the Middle East could be a strategic move, reducing dependency on the US.

• Increasing Local Production: Some Italian brands might consider establishing local production in the United States to avoid the impact of potential tariffs and enhance their competitiveness.

• Marketing the “Made in Italy” Value: Strengthening the value and uniqueness of Made in Italy, leveraging the reputation for quality, craftsmanship, and sustainability, could help consolidate American consumer loyalty to Italian products.

The future of Made in Italy under this new Trump 2.0 administration remains uncertain and could be influenced by an increase in protectionist policies. However, the strong appreciation of American consumers for Made in Italy, particularly in luxury and quality sectors, could help mitigate the impact of new tariffs. Strategic preparation, focused on market diversification and investment in innovation, will be crucial for Italian success in the US even in a more competitive scenario.